Old Enough To Be A Blessing

Most parents of means hope their children will express the family’s core values by participating in charitable endeavors.  This is why in our family, we attempt to have our children involved in every aspect of charitable activities that are age appropriate.

As a father with two children under six years old and having children that are growing up in a more privileged environment than most Americans, I’ve certainly worried over ways to minimize materialism and maximize compassion.  Also as an advisor working with families that have wealth that is significant, I’ve found that teaching children charitable values and habits is something that needs to be done by doing and through consistency.  Children learn by observing, so the most important element is leading by example.

The worst thing we can do as parents is wait until our kids are “old enough” to be “ready” for philanthropy.  The first step in raising kids who care and contribute is realizing that it’s not going to happen in the boardroom, but instead at the kitchen table.

Funding Your Child’s Education

As fall approaches, colleges around the country are busy sending out tuition bills to parents and students.  For those of you with a college bound child I’m sure you’ve already seen yours.  I recently helped my brother review his latest bill and was astonished at how high college costs are becoming.

As I often preach to our clients, parents should take full advantage of college savings programs like the 529 plan to help prepare for the day when they’ll be faced with their own inevitable sticker shock.

A 529 Plan is an investment plan offered by a State or educational institution to help families save for future college expenses. The number comes from the section of the Internal Revenue code that covers these types of accounts. These plans can be used to pay for expenses at qualified colleges nationwide. In most cases, your child does not need to attend a school in the state that sponsors the 529 plan you elect to use. You are also not restricted to investing in the plan offered by your state of residence. Every state now offers at least one 529 plan and many states offer several different choices, so finding a plan that is right for you is no problem.

One of the key benefits of 529 plans is the Federal and State tax benefits they offer. Although contributions are not deductible on your federal tax return, the investment will grow tax-deferred. Money withdrawn to pay for your child’s college costs is tax-free at the federal level and also in most states. Some states also offer tax breaks including deductions for contributions, but these vary from state to state. The Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) treats 529 accounts established by parents on behalf of their children as parental assets rather than student assets, significantly reducing the negative impact these funds may have on your child’s qualification for financial aid.

Parents and grandparents can open accounts and the amounts that you can save are substantial because of rules that allow you to contribute an amount equal to the annual gift limit for 5-years in one lump sum (once you do that you cannot gift any money for the next five years). You can even open up an account for yourself if you are planning on going back to college or graduate school in a few years. While it is possible to open up one account then split it later to benefit multiple children, it is normally better to open up a separate account for each child or grandchild. Separate accounts allow you to tailor the investments inside the account for each beneficiary. More importantly, separate accounts also make your intentions clear in case you are disabled or deceased before the child graduates from college.

Utilizing a 529 account to save for college is one way for parents to help their children, but really the key is to start saving when children are young. Money grows over time and starting to focus on college savings once children are in high school is probably too late for most families. That being said, if you are planning on paying your child’s tuition out of pocket, you should still place those dollars into a 529 account first, and then pay them to the school.  This will allow you to capture the state tax deduction (in most states).  If you are not taking advantage of a state 529 plan you are missing out on tax free growth and cash back in your pocket from your state government.  Setting up and funding an account is quick and easy, give us a call today if you’re not currently taking advantage of this opportunity and we’ll get you started.

Succession Planning

Family Businesses:  Your Legacy

As an owner myself and working with many business owners, family businesses can take a lifetime of hard work to build. So for many owners it would be prudent to have a comprehensive succession plan in place to ensure the family business is passed down smoothly to the next generation, but a 2008 Price Waterhouse Cooper (PWC) survey found that 49 percent of companies have no such plan.

There are a number of reasons which, although not prudent are perfectly understandable, as to why businesses do not properly plan for succession, yet a failure to plan generational change may leave a business with heirs who are unprepared or uninterested in continuing the legacy. The result is often business failure and the failure of the business legacy.

Challenge #1 – Formality and Structure

The essential challenge that VisionQuest Wealth Management sees is to structure ownership and control to ensure the business continues to be properly run while at the same time ensuring the family can enjoy the fruits of that business and can pass it on to future generations.

The business needs to consider for whom it needs to provide for and how. The issues are likely to be financial: does the succession need to provide an income stream or capital, and for those working in the company or the extended family? Sometimes, especially with the larger concerns, it is strategic control that needs to be addressed.

There may also be external threats to the business, which also need careful consideration so the appropriate action can take place: mental instability or emotional susceptibility of family members; taxation; insolvency; divorce; and Inheritance Act claims can all also be relevant.

Idea #1 – Creating some formality

Often, it is difficult to separate business issues from family issues. Sometimes the first step is for a family to agree to identify the assets that are “family assets” and set out in principle how they are to be managed and who will benefit from these assets. Even if a formal document is not drawn up, it is essential that the key family members are in agreement with the succession plan and understand what is expected of them.

Part of the succession plan will involve a consideration of how external threats to the business can be addressed.

On an individual level, pre-nuptial agreements have a role in protecting business assets on divorce, and lasting powers of attorney can provide for assets to be managed if a person loses capacity.  At a business level, decisions need to be taken about operational control and the composition of the board, and these decisions need to be kept under review.

In terms of business structure, it should be remembered that particular aspects of the business may be better carried out by a subsidiary entity, be that a company or a limited liability partnership. If the business is structured in the most appropriate way, succession planning can be made easier.

Challenge #2 – Multiple children in the business

Another problem faced by a business owner with several children is that he or she wants to treat his children equally, but does not want to fragment ownership of the business.

If the business is run as a company then one possible option is to split the share capital into different classes:

•           Non-voting preference shares

•           Non-voting ordinary shares

•           Voting ordinary shares

In this way economic ownership of the company can be divided while at the same time shareholder control can be concentrated in the hands of just one chosen family successor.

At the same time it might be appropriate to amend the Articles of Incorporation to:

•           Prohibit the transfer of shares outside the lineal family

•           Include pre-emption rights for shareholders and

•           Confer absolute discretion on the directors to decline to register a transfer of     shares

Setting up a family trust should also be considered as part of the succession plan as it can:

•           Separate control from economic value

•           Enable centralized decision-making

•           Confer discretion over future benefits

•           Offer significant long-term asset protection

A trust will be particularly appropriate if the plan is for management of the business to be carried on by a professional team, but for ownership to stay with family members. If you go down the trust route you will have many complex decisions to make although it is a powerful and effective option: a trust can be established during the individual’s lifetime or in their will.

When setting up a trust, the most important consideration is the identity of the trustees. Often, rather than appointing family members to act in this role, it is better to appoint professional trustees who are able to act impartially.  There will be other issues to address:

•           Who has power to appoint replacement trustees?

•           Should there be more than one individual trust?

•           Who should be included as beneficiaries?

Whatever is decided, the business owner should be looking to make arrangements that can potentially continue for the benefit of the second and possibly the third generation. The arrangement should be sufficiently flexible to cope with changing future circumstances - whether that be family circumstances or legislative changes.

Conclusion

The issues of succession can be complex and might take time to resolve satisfactorily.  However, ignoring the subject can significantly reduce the chance of a family business surviving a succession without significant damage being done.

Not all the suggestions discussed above will seem attractive. Every case is different and the ideas are intended merely to illustrate the approaches that can be taken. They also illustrate the complex decisions that may need to be taken and hence the reason why forward planning is essential. If the end result is a successful transition of the business then the effort will have been worth it.

VQ in the News!

http://www.vqwealth.com/modules/news/vq_in_the_news-local_wealth_management_firm_encourages_passionate_giving.html

Happy Independence Day

Two-hundred and thirty-five July 4th’s ago, the United States became reality. While there have been plenty of stumbles along the way, other than during the Civil War, doubts about its continued existence have been few and far between. Lately, however, government spending and debt levels have created a mainstream fear that the US is possibly on its last legs – destined to become a future version of Greece.

We don’t agree and, no, we are not sticking our heads in the sand. Our problems are clear.  The budget deficit will be about 8.5% of GDP in 2011, down slightly from 9% in 2010 and 10% in 2009. These deficits are impossible to sustain over the longer run.

Meanwhile, the total public debt of the US is now $14.3 trillion and future promises that are yet to be funded, specifically Social Security and Medicare benefits, amount to roughly $60 trillion in present value terms.

If we combine these numbers, we come to roughly $75 trillion which is roughly five times our annual GDP. With numbers like these, how could we not think serious, economy-threatening problems are NOT on the way?  How could we not become another Greece?

Well, for one thing, you can’t hide from all the information on the Internet that is forcing these issues to be addressed by politicians. Second, the political landscape in the US has changed – perhaps because of point one. Third, the solutions are relatively simple in reality, even though very complicated politically.

Part of the solution is higher revenues, and this will happen even if tax rates are not increased. In the past 12 months, revenues have climbed by about $220 billion over the previous 12 months – or, about 0.5% of GDP. We expect revenues to continue this trend, rising from their current level of 14.5% of GDP back to about 18.5% of GDP (a 4% move).

Meanwhile, current debt-limit negotiations are likely to cut federal discretionary (non-entitlement, non-interest) spending. In the 1990s, discretionary spending fell from about 9% of GDP to 6%. So let’s say, we go from 9% today to 7.5%, which could be a “low hurdle” given the eventual reduction in operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Combining this 1.5% of GDP cut with the 4% rise in revenues (total of 5.5%), could bring the annual deficit down to 3% of GDP.

Of course, that still leaves the long-term entitlement problem, but even there we can see the outlines of solutions looming in the distance. For Medicare and Medicaid, which are much bigger problems than Social Security, we think ultimately the forces of smaller government win. We do not know whether it will be in 2012, 2016, or 2020, but one of those elections is likely to result in a Republican in the White House with control of both the US Senate and House. And at that point, they can enact major reforms along the lines of some recent proposals to turn Medicare into premium support and turn Medicaid into block grants to the states.

Parliamentary rules will allow the GOP to enact these changes with only a simple majority in the Senate (with no chance for a Democratic filibuster). And to reverse these reforms, because it would make future budget deficits larger, Democrats would need 60 votes in the Senate!

On Social Security, any change requires 60 votes in the Senate. This means tax hikes (to fill the gap) are as much in play as benefit cuts.  In the meantime, news stories suggest even AARP is now willing to consider some reductions in benefits. In other words, fiscal reality is beginning to bite.

In the end, the road to fiscal redemption is a long one and we’ll be on it for many years, but we think the ultimate destination will be smaller government and more manageable deficits than most investors realize.

Please enjoy time with your family.  From our VisionQuest Family to yours, we wish you a happy, safe and fun-filled Fourth of July.

Crisis Investing: Keeping Your Head

When a crisis creates uncertainty, markets often become volatile; especially when the scope of the disaster isn’t clear. A crisis is like Janus, the Roman god, with faces that looked forward and back. For some investors, it may represent a threat.  For others, it may spell an opportunity. Not every crisis requires a reaction and sticking to a long-term plan is still the best strategy for most people.

Here are some examples of factors that investors sometimes overlook when considering which face of Janus to focus on during a crisis.

Watch the global supply chain

Companies increasingly operate in a global context. The more heavily an industry or company relies on global partners, the more it might be affected by crisis conditions. Think not only about companies that are affected directly by turmoil, but about other companies that rely on them.

For example, China has become in many ways the world’s factory floor and many information technology services are now outsourced to India. How would a crisis in either country affect global supply chains or communications infrastructure? Might competitors not affected by the crisis pick up at least some of the slack? How might a particular industry be hit by shortages of parts or raw materials? Is a large multi-national firm so geographically spread out that a crisis in one part of the world may have little impact on its overall operations? Oil is perhaps the most obvious example of how a crisis can affect global supply chains. A perceived threat to supplies can affect prices of other assets.

Consider currency fluctuations

Currency fluctuation is another factor to consider. Crises in one part of the world can affect that region’s currency which in turn, can affect companies located elsewhere. The 2010 panic over potential default by several eurozone countries strengthened the dollar and although that may sound like good news, a stronger dollar can hurt U.S. exports.

Currency issues are important because of what’s called the “carry trade.” This happens when investors use money from a country where interest rates are relatively low.  However, if the cheaper currency suddenly increases in value, the “carry trade” can reverse as investors put their capital back into the so-called “funding currency.” This can affect assets denominated in other currencies. For example, the yen soared as investors anticipated that money would be repatriated to deal with Japan’s earthquake/tsunami/nuclear disaster. Some investments denominated in other currencies suffered when investors sold them to invest in yen.

Think both long-term and short-term

Nothing lasts forever.  When considering whether a crisis represents a challenge or an opportunity, think both short-term and long-term. A crisis with potentially long-term opportunities or harmful consequences may mean you may be able to take more time with a decision. If the window of opportunity is smaller or the potential devastation more short-term, remember that there are alternatives to an “all-or-nothing” investment approach. For example, you could take a small position and see how your investment thesis plays out before committing more. Even if the window of opportunity slams shut, new opportunities often emerge during even the worst of times.  Missing one now doesn’t mean you won’t find others later, but to do so you need to have your “head on a swivel” always looking for the next new opportunity and acting much like Janus.

This information contains forward-looking statements about various economic trends and strategies. You are cautioned that such forward-looking statements are subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and actual results could be materially different. There are no guarantees associated with any forecast and the opinions stated here are subject to change at any time and are the opinion of the individual strategist. Data is taken from sources generally believed to be reliable but no guarantee is given to its accuracy.

Economic Update June 13, 2011

For the record, in our professional lives, we try not to really care that much about Republicans or Democrats. Our constituency is the investor, but everything is politicized. Conservatives get mad at us because we are optimistic about the economy and often they want to say Obama is hurting it. Liberals get mad because we think investors are better served by a much smaller government – they want a bigger one.

We are in “no-man’s-land,” taking fire from both sides.  Some would argue that the end of stimulus is certain death for the economy. Others would argue government growth is causing the next great depression for all of us.  Anyone in the middle (like us), that says, “yes, the economy would be more robust (and unemployment lower) if we had less government, but, the US economy is still growing anyway” is a target for politicized anger.

And now that a “Soft Patch” in economic data and some softness in stock prices have developed, the political rhetoric has ramped up. We think it’s all temporary, but that suits almost no one in the political sphere.  Investors who let politics interfere with their economic or investing thought-process are making a grave mistake.  We think the pessimism is overdone and this is a great buying opportunity.

Take a deep breath and start looking for signs of economic life.  Start looking at Calafia Beach Pundit, a blog written by a fabulous economist, Scott Grannis. Scott has been optimistic for the past two years and recently highlighted commercial and industrial lending, what he calls “a good measure of bank lending to small and medium-sized businesses.”  These loans expanded for the seventh straight month in May and are up 12.2% at an annual rate in the past three months.

How about tax receipts? Up 19.2% in May compared to a year ago, despite a cut in payroll tax rates. Net individual income tax payments were up 55% versus May 2010 – a burst due to a sharp rise in “non-withheld” payments (final settlement for taxes owed for 2010). But, according to the Congressional Budget Office, withheld receipts – for income and payroll taxes combined – were still up 10% versus a year ago.

Meanwhile, exports hit a record high in April, up 18.8% versus year-ago levels. And aggregate hours worked (total employment times the length of the workweek) are up 3.5% at an annual rate during the three months ending in May. Commercial construction expanded for the third straight month in April. And this week, we’ll get a key report on May retail sales. Weak auto sales will drag the top-line number down, but chain store sales were up in May and we expect ex-auto retail sales to be up about 8% above May 2010 levels.

None of this fits the dour, and politically-hyped, forecasts of economic Armageddon so prevalent these days. The soft patch is nothing more than a temporary and superficial blow to the economy. If it was anything more than Japan’s disasters and the tornado season, the good numbers we’ve been seeing lately – on lending, tax revenue, trade, hours-worked, ex-auto sales, and commercial building – wouldn’t be happening.

Shhhh….Money!

In a recent conversation with a client who happens to be a prominent psychologist in Philadelphia, he marveled over the fact that my firm and I are so open and comfortable talking about money.  He continued by telling me that while clients talk extensively and relatively early in sessions about relationships with parents, experiences during childhood, hopes and fears and even very private dreams, the one subject almost never discussed is money.

This initial comment surprised me, but the more I thought about it, the more it inspired me to write this article on why we shouldn’t be so “Hush-Hush” about money.  After working with individuals, families and businesses for several years, I see that there are three distinct aspects of wealth that we should discuss openly with loved ones and advisors:  The Emotional, The Social and The Financial.

The most intimate and important aspect of wealth falls into the emotional realm.  This is where each person must ask the question, “What is the purpose for all my work and this wealth?”  Many other professionals in the financial services industry seem to rationalize that if families are really interested in talking about the emotional aspect of wealth, then they will just bring them up for discussion.  I’ve often seen how difficult this can be for individuals and families not because the issue is so sensitive, but because they need help crystallizing their vision.  From a professional standpoint, I think it is nearly impossible for me to assist my clients in achieving their life-long goals without understanding their vision and values or the emotional aspect of wealth.

Let’s now explore the social aspect of wealth.  Most people see their wealth as one block of wealth-owned and controlled by them.  This is really not the case though.  An individual or family’s wealth is actually divided into two distinct categories:  Social Capital and Personal Capital.  Personal Capital is the capital that we get to pass onto our loved ones or passions without restriction, and Social Capital is the portion of wealth that doesn’t belong to us, even though we have temporary control over it.   Unfortunately, this social capital gets allocated to the federal government in most cases.  So if you don’t talk about it or plan for it, the default option leaves this social capital to the federal government in the form of estate taxes.  When positioned this way to individuals and families, the question that often follows is “can we self-direct that social capital to a worthwhile charity of our choice?” or “can we exercise any control over that social capital?”  The answers to those questions are “yes you can!”

Your money or wealth should be seen as the stored values that you and your skills have created and have the opportunity to be controlled and passed onto others.  We all must realize that we will be philanthropic in one form or the other, but the only way you can control how these stored values will be passed on is by being open about your money.

The last and most mundane aspect of wealth is the “financial aspect”.  This aspect addresses the tangible material benefits that having money provides to individuals or families.  It is made up of balance sheets, profit and loss statements, investment summaries, bank accounts, tax returns, etc.  In my profession, most are analytical, so it is understandable that most talk about money is done at this level.  However, individual and family discussions must not stop at a balance sheet and a tax-table.  Money discussions stopping at the financial aspect will end up leaving far more benefits on the table than if we are open about all three aspects of wealth.

Deciding what will be done with your wealth to maximize its real value in use can be just as important as deciding how to save, accumulate, and invest it.  In my opinion, individuals and families can substantially increase their lifetime money success by giving appropriate attention to what chess players know to be important—the end game.  The irony is that this can only happen if we are open with our dialogue, sharing our vision, values and goals with our loved ones and advisors.

Retirement plans for the small business owner

One of the biggest mistakes entrepreneurs make is not planning adequately for their retirement. This really isn’t all that surprising. If you’re self-employed, it’s a squeeze to set the money aside and in some cases, there’s a fear that you may need those funds to keep things rolling if the business doesn’t grow the way you expected or the owner rationalizes not saving for retirement with the dream that ultimately they will sell the business and live off the proceeds for their future lifestyle plan.

Unfortunately, the excuses created by owners, for their lack of planning are many, but none of them are acceptable when it comes to planning for their future and paying themselves first.  Additionally, Uncle Sam does offer help in a variety of relatively painless retirement plans to help small-business owners save for retirement.  VisionQuest’s Business Advisory Services division has been instrumental in setting up complete benefit solutions to include retirement plans for our business-owner clients.  The three most common plans we establish are the SEP’s, SIMPLE’s and Solo 401k’s.

1. The SEP

 Great for a one owner business, a Simplified Employee Pension, or SEP IRA, is  a basic way to set aside pre-tax savings. You can contribute as much as 25 percent of your net self-employment income, up to a maximum of $49,000. If you’re age is 50 or over at the end of the calendar year, you can also make an additional catch-up contribution up to $5,500 annually.

Pros: Flexibility is its biggest strength. There’s no need to fund the account until you file your return. So if your net income turns out to be higher than expected, you can make a larger contribution and trim your tax bill. If you have a bad year, you can reduce your contribution.  If you’re building your new business on the side while still working for an employer who’s sponsored 401(k) plan you contribute to; your contributions to a SEP doesn’t interfere with your current workplace plan.  You can deduct the contributions you make each year to each employee’s SEP-IRA. If you are self-employed, you can deduct the contributions you make each year to your own SEP plan.

Cons: If you have employees, this plan may be costly for the owner because the money you put into a SEP will count as an “employer” contribution. The owners must make the same percentage contributions they take for all employees who are 21 and older and who have been employed for at least three of the last five years and are expected to earn $550 in the current year.

Deadline:  As an owner, you have until the due date for your tax returns, including any extensions (meaning as late at Oct. 17th), to both set up and fund the plan for the previous year.

2. The SIMPLE

 A SIMPLE IRA (Savings Incentive Match Plan for Employees) is designed specifically for small businesses and self-employed individuals. If you have a few employees, say, less than 10, who make more than $5,000, but far from six figures, this is probably the one for you. It was designed for firms with no more than 100 employees.

Pros: This plan is very easy to set-up and maintain, and as far as contributions go, you can make an employee contribution of up to $11,500 pre-tax, or $14,000 if you’re 50 or older.  There are no percentage of income restrictions and your contributions are tax deductible, and like all qualified plans your investment grows tax-deferred until you are ready to make withdrawals in retirement.

Employers are generally required to make a contribution to match each employee’s salary reduction contributions on a dollar-for-dollar basis up to 3% of the employee’s salary or a flat 2% of pay — no matter what the employee contributes to the account.

 Cons:  You can’t contribute if you’ve already maxed out contributions to another company plan.  Also, if you need to make a withdrawal from a SIMPLE IRA plan within two years of its inception, the 25% penalty is significantly higher than the 10% fee you’d be charged for early withdrawal from a SEP IRA.

 Deadline: The plan must be set-up by October 1 to make contributions for that given year and all employee contributions must be made by December 31.

3. Solo 401(k)

 This is a solid choice for business owners and their spouses who are able to set aside a significant portion of their earnings. With a solo 401(k), as an employee, you can stash away as much as $16,500 in any given year. As the employer, you can contribute another 25% of compensation, up to a ceiling of $49,000, including your employee contribution. If you’re 50 or older, you can toss in another $5,500 extra for a total of $54,500.

Pros: Generous contribution limits is its biggest strength and it’s low cost to run.  If there’s a set-up or annual fee, it will be low. With most owners paying a small set-up fee, $100 or less, plus an annual fee of $10 to $250. And these contribution amounts are optional, so you can save the top figure in flush years and less in leaner times. If you already have an individual retirement account funded by money rolled from a previous employer’s 401(k), you can roll those retirement savings into your new solo 401(k). It’s also possible to take out a loan against a solo 401(k). That can be useful if you need funds in a pinch, adding some flexibility. You can borrow half the account’s balance, up to $50,000, and normally can take up to five years to pay it back (provider rules differ).

 Cons: No extra employees can participate, only self-employed business owners and a spouse. This is not the best option if you’re still working a day job. If you contribute to an employee 401(k) at your day job, you might already be saving the max amount you can contribute. You get only one combined $16,500/$22,000 employee contribution limit to a 401(k) plan, no matter how many jobs you’re working.

Deadline: The deadline to open a new plan is typically December 31(or fiscal year end) and must be funded by your tax return due date, even if you extend your return.

If you would like to explore setting up, upgrading or changing your current small-business retirement plan, please don’t hesitate to call and get our experts working for you and your business.

Economic Update

The big news last week was the execution of Osama bin Laden. It was both the end and the beginning of an era. It provides closure on at least some part of 9/11. However, terrorism is still with us, just with a different face.

The same is true for the economy and markets. Last week real GDP was released for the first quarter of 2011 and was up for the seventh consecutive quarter, hitting a new all-time high. Even though unemployment is elevated, US economic output has recovered from the Panic of 2008. Nonetheless, investors remain nervous, even bearish, about the economy and financial markets. There are still many analysts with dour outlooks.

A perfect example of this came from Doug Kass – a great guy, uncanny investor and a short-seller who has, amazingly, not become cynical. To summarize his statements, Mr. Kass sees a failure of capitalism. We do not, we see a failure of government –specific to policy. The proof of this, for us, is that when the market understood that Barney Frank would force the end of mark-to-market accounting on March 9, 2009 – the stock market rally started. The bottom was a direct result of this change, not quantitative easing, TARP, stress tests, or any other government program.

Since that time, the bears have not given up. Most of them have been forecasting more economic problems, a double-dip, a stock market crash…something bad. Kass called a bottom in March 2009, but seems to have doubted the sustainability of the stock market increase, forecasting its end numerous times in the past two years.

The bulls were wrong in 2008, but right in 2009 and 2010. The bears were right in 2008, but wrong in 2009 and 2010. If you are looking for an infallible forecast…stop right now. There is no such thing.

There are always going to be bulls and bears, and they are always going to debate. The debate today is whether the bull market of the past two years will continue or not.

It seems to us that the bears never believed that the recovery was real. At the same time, most of the bulls (including us) thought that the problems of 2008 were not going to be permanent. As a result, the bears think that the market is over-valued and that the recovery is all based on government stimulus. The bulls see a more sustainable recovery driven by productivity, earnings, jobs and incomes.

In the next year or so, we’ll find out who is right. Until then, we have had a lot to be positive about in the most recent months – let’s hope it continues.

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This information contains forward-looking statements about various economic trends and strategies. You are cautioned that such forward-looking statements are subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and actual results could be materially different. There are no guarantees associated with any forecast and the opinions stated here are subject to change at any time and are the opinion of the individual strategist. Data comes from the following sources: Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve Board, and Haver Analytics. Data is taken from sources generally believed to be reliable but no guarantee is given to its accuracy.

Stephen C. Peters

President & CEO

VisionQuest Wealth Management